Asia's Biggest Stories of 2004

This is the time when news organizations publish their annual top ten news stories of the Year. The Associated Press’s listing contained not one story originating in Asia. Presumably the voting took place too early to include the cataclysmic tsunami that hit South and Southeast Asia at year’s end. But why leave off the Afghanistan presidential election, which is supposed to be such a seminal event of the war in terror campaign? Anyway, here is Asia Cable’s list of the top stories in Asia in 2004:

1. Earthquake and tsunami kill more than 70,000
2. Indonesia holds first presidential election
3. Taiwan re-elects Chen shui-bian
4. China emerges as mover in world financial markets
5. Indians vote to oust BJP, return Congress Party
6. Megumi affair impacts Japan-North Korea
7. South Korea’s president survives impeachment
8. Kim Jong Il survives presumed assassination attempt
9. Hong Kong’s democrats win seats
10.China signs big oil deal with Iran

What can one say about the end-of-year earthquake and tsunami? At more than 70,000 and counting, the death toll is now double that of the famous eruption and tsunami of Mt. Krakatoa in 1883. The less than urgent response from Washington to the tragedy reflects the general indifference of most Americans to this region. Unfortunately, for most Americans Indonesia is a giant blank spot on the globe. President George W. Bush probably just reflects the attitudes of most of his countrymen, unless prodded by his advisers (or Bill Clinton), who were scattered during the down week between Christmas and New Years.

That’s one reason why Indonesia’s critical presidential election of September 20 received relatively little attention. On that day for the first time since Independence, 150 million voters went to the polls to elect their president. They did it in a grand style, ousting Megawati Sukarnoputri and replacing her with Susilo Bambang Yuhoyono. Indonesia is a largely Muslim country often beset by civil strife, and at times terrorist bombings that is transforming itself successfully into a stable democracy after long years under a dictator without U.S. soldiers or other outside assistance. That has to be one of the more encouraging news stories of the year.

Taiwan’s voters by the narrowest of margins gave President Chen Shui-bian a second term, although they defeated, also by a narrow margin, a referendum asking whether Taiwan should bolster its anti-missile defenses in the face of China’s buildup. Apparently, the voters instinctively felt that re-electing President Chen was provocation enough for one election. In December, however, Chen’s pan-green alliance fell short of a majority in the election for the Legislature, which may restrain Chen from pushing the envelope of independence too far.

When a modest quarter percent increase in the People’s Bank of China lending rate makes the front page of the New York Times, you know that the ground is shifting. The increase in late October was not so significant in itself, being part of a general effort by Beijing to slow the economy, but the notice that the world took underscored just how important China is becoming in the world economy. Consider too that an off hand remark by an obscure bank official at a Shanghai seminar about China’s possibly pulling back on buying U.S. Treasury bonds (later officially denied) boosted the euro a record level.

Another country, another election. In May India’s voters surprised themselves and the rest of the world by ousting the BJP-dominated alliance led by Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and returning the Congress Party to power. The Congress and its allies won 215 seats compared to the BJP’s 182 to emerge as the largest bloc in Parliament. The leader of the Congress and head of India’s most important political dynasty, Italian-born Sonia Gandhi, declined to serve as prime minister. Instead, Manmohan Sing was appointed.

Relations between Japan and North Korea reached a new low late in 2004 over the perennial issue of missing Japanese kidnapped by North Korea in the 1970s. The latest incident involved a woman named Megumi Yokota, who was abducted in 1977 and reportedly died in 1994. Her “remains” were turned over to a visiting Japanese delegation in November, but DNA tests (made possible because Japanese traditionally save the umbilical cord of newly born children) showed the remains “belonged to a number of other people.”

One could say it was a tough year for the leaders of both of the Koreas. South Korea’s President Roh Moo Hyun suffered the indignity of being impeached by the National Assembly in March for alleged incompetence and mismanagement. He had to turn over power to Prime Minister Goh Kun for two months until the Constitutional Court ruled that the charges were not serious enough to justify unseating a popularly elected president. Roh’s Uri Party won control of the Assembly in April in part because of voter fury over the impeachment.

Kim Jong Il does not have to worry about being impeached, but he may have some other concerns on his mind. Two trains carrying gasoline and LPG collided at a railway station in Ryongchon near the Chinese border causing a devastating explosion. Kim’s train had passed through the station only a few hours before, returning him to Pyongyang after a brief visit to Beijing. Whether this was an assassination attempt or a coincidence remains a mystery. Yet reports filtering out of North Korea, such that some people were doffing their little Kim Jong Il pins, suggested some political unrest in the country.

Hong Kong’s people were pulled this way and that by political controversies for the first nine months of 2004. China’s National People’s Congress said, in effect, don’t expect any movement toward greater democracy anytime soon; another half a million people took to the streets on July 1 to demonstrate for greater democracy and voters finally expressed their views in the September Legislative Council election (the first with half of the 60-seat body returned through direct elections). Democrats as a whole increased their margin, but the Hong Kong Democratic Party, long the standard-bearer for democracy, suffered losses as new voices, such as perpetual protestor Leung Kwok-hung, won seats in the body.

China’s signing of a $100 billion deal to buy liquefied natural gas from Iran was just the largest of a number of deals negotiated in 2004 as Beijing scoured the world for secure sources of energy to meet its rapidly expanding economy and energy needs. China’s petroleum imports expanded by a whopping 40% during the year. She replaced Japan as the world’s second largest consumer. In addition, during the year Chinese petroleum companies were prospecting for contracts in Canada and as far away as Venezuela. These are obvious portents of what will become an increasingly important economic and geopolitical story in 2005 and the years beyond.