Monday, December 06, 2004

Banking on Revaluation

Should you buy Chinese money? Not so long ago the mere suggestion would have seemed absurd. You might as well have asked whether anyone is interested in buying Confederate money or old Imperial Chinese railroad bonds. The Chinese currency, known as the renminbi or yuan was something to paper your wall with.

But try and tell that to the thousands of Chinese who lined up outside the Bank of China in Shanghai one day in November to exchange U.S. dollars for their own currency. According to the Wall Street Journal they feared that a revaluation of the renminbi would cut the value of their dollar savings.

For more than a year, massive foreign pressure has been exerted on China to revalue its currency, which has been pegged to the U.S. dollar at a rate of 8.3 for more than a decade. Secretary of the Treasury John Snow has been probably the most persistent proponent of a delinking or re-pegging at a higher rate. Beijing’s leaders have resisted all such calls, saying they will move steadily toward greater flexibility in their own good time.

Depending on whom you listened to, the renminbi is overvalued by about 15 to 25 percent. So, if the Chinese authorities allowed the currency to float to its “natural” level anyone holding large amounts of Chinese money could make a killing. But two questions remain. How realistic is that expectation, and how, do you get your hands on yuan.

After all, it is not that easy to open any foreign currency accounts in the U.S. Just try going down to your local bank branch and ask to open an account in, say, euros. You will likely get a blank stare in return. American banks stubbornly resist opening foreign currency accounts, claiming that there isn’t a demand for them.

That’s in contrast to other places, like Hong Kong, where you can walk into any bank branch, not just the sophisticated headquarters of international commerce in Central but the ones in purely Chinese neighborhoods, sandwiched between the snake shop and the birds nest soup shop, and open an account in any one of a dozen currencies.

I know of only one bank in the U.S. that positively welcomes foreign currency accounts. And last year Everbank of St. Louis (www.everbank.com) began offering renminbi deposit accounts last year. “Immediately, it became one of our best offerings,” Chuck Butler, President for World Markets told me.



Everbank requires a minimum $10,000 deposit, and the accounts bear no interest. So anyone opening one is simply speculating that China will widen exchange rate band or break the peg. The investor parks his dollars in the account in anticipation that he can walk away later with a profit. Since the renminbi is a non-convertible, meaning it cannot be taken out of China, the bank can only settle in dollars.

How realistic is it for one can make a profit from renminbi? To date, China has resisted revaluation pressure for a variety of reasons. The banking system is still in poor shape, and any revaluation would simply increase the value of the mass of non-performing loans, for example. But more to the point, Beijing simply does not like to be stampeded into making large moves under foreign pressure.

Premier Wen Jiabao, in response to growing speculation over revaluation, stated Beijing’s case quite explicitly during a visit to attend an ASEAN meeting in Laos in late November. “To be honest, the more speculation that is made about the renminbi, the less chance there will be a measure to change it,” he said. Also, China may re-peg the currency to a basket of other foreign currencies, rather than let it float.

It should be recalled that in late October the People’s Bank of China astonished the world by raising interest rates for the first time in nine years. It wasn’t a very big increase, but it came when nobody expected the bank would make such a move. Renminbi revaluation, when it comes, will probably also take place when nobody is looking.

So basically one has the option of letting capital lie like a lump, earning no interest and waiting until that blessed day, six months from now, a year, whenever, when Beijing decides to make the currency float. Considering many of the other attractive options available these days, one would probably be better off with Australian dollars or the many other currencies that do move.

.

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